Why Huntsman is Well-Positioned, In Three Words
Posted: June 13, 2011 Filed under: politics Leave a comment »
For someone who one day aspires to be president, Jon Huntsman is in a pretty enviable position, as almost every conceivable 2012 scenario ultimately works in his favor–even the scenarios in which he loses. This is how I see it:
1. He runs but fails to get the nomination. This is okay, because it positions him to be next-in-line to run in 2016 (or later, if Obama doesn’t get re-elected).
2. He runs, fails to get the nomination, but ends up as the eventual candidate’s VP. Huntsman would be a good counter-balance to someone like Bachmann or Cain. If he runs as VP but loses, that’s okay, because it positions him to be next-in-line in 2016. If he runs as VP and wins, that positions him to be next-in-line in 2020 (assuming the candidate at the top of the ticket ran for re-election–but now we’re getting ahead of ourselves).
3. He decides not to run. This probably won’t happen, but if he doesn’t run, it positions him to be…you can finish this sentence, right?
4. He runs, gets the nomination. A win for obvious reasons.
The old adage that Republicans nominate the next-in-line in presidential primaries is a little bit overstated, but there’s no denying that being seen as an early front-runner can help a candidate gain traction when they might not otherwise (there’s no way Romney would have gotten as far as he has this cycle, for instance, had he not been the runner-up last time around). Anyway, I can think of but one losing scenario for Huntsman:
1. He runs, does poorly in the primaries, and is passed on as VP. Let’s say Huntsman comes in sixth place in New Hampshire, one of his must-win states. This would make it a lot harder for primary voters to take him seriously in 2016. He has to at least make a respectable showing; otherwise, he’ll just be remembered as the moderate guy in Obama’s cabinet who entered the race late and never gained any traction.
Oddly enough, that last one might actually be the most likely: he’s currently pulling 1% or so in most polls.
